Friday

weighting old hockey tourneys

The IIHF compiles an annual international hockey ranking:
http://www.iihf.com/home-of-hockey/championships/world-ranking/mens-world-ranking/2011-ranking.html
A problem with weighting each WHC equally with Olympics is in theory the best NHLers are still in the playoffs.  Another problem is the rankings expire after only 4 years.  Players peak at around 24, younger for FWs and older for keepers.  So at 22 and for five years, I'll assign tourneys full weighting.  Tourneys gradually decline in importance over time as previously peak players reach 27-30, and symmetrically ascending from 18-21 years of age.  E.Lindros didn't have a problem at the 1991 Canada Cup, but many players aren't physically mature at 17; 18 yr olds in less physical Euro leagues should maybe be playing against 17 yr old WHLers.  Very few 16 years can make a difference at a best-on-best tournament, as can very few 38 yr olds.  16 yr old players and 38 yr old players are weighted the same tourney value (5%), 17 yr olds and 34 yr olds are also weighted the same value (25%).

If your still with me (spread-sheet one day) for five years I'll assign a tournament a weighting of 1: a 22 year old is still prime at 26.  A 6 yrs ago tournament drops in importance 10% to 0.9.  Every year a tourney loses 10% of weighting until the tourney is 12 years old and weighted 0.3 or 30% as important as a tourney which was played1-5 years ago.  Then losing 5% weighting a year until a 17 years ago tourney is only weighted 0.05 of a new one.  In 2011, I'd count the 1996 World Cup but not the 1994 Olympics.

Younger players don't play at the same skill level (more intensity though), so I'll penalize youth players with a lesser tourney weighting: 21 year old players, 0.9.  20 yr olds, 0.8. 19 yr olds, 0.7.  18 yr olds, 0.6.  17 yr olds, 0.25.  16 yr olds, 0.05.
A further penalty is the best players are of all ages.  The # of years from 16-38, is 23.  At 16 yr olds and under the tourney is only getting 1/23rd of all the top players.  At 17 and U 2/23.  18 and U 3/23....21 and U 6/23.  Multiplying these fractions by the previous paragraph values yields (rounded to 0.1%) tourney weightings of:  21&U, 0.235.  20&U, 0.174.  19&U, 0.122.  18&U, 0.078.  17&U, 0.022.  And 16&U tourneys 0.002 or 0.2% the value of World-Cups/Olympics.
The youth tourney results are valid for longer than adult tournaments as players are starting from younger than 22 yrs old.  Tourney results will be included at full weighting an extra year for every year younger than 22 years old the eldest players are.  21&U tourney results will be ranked for 18 years.  16&U for 23 years, rendering hypothetical results from 1989 valid in 2011.