Showing posts with label value investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label value investing. Show all posts

Friday

winnowing down KG portfolios

who has gas

Natural gas is cheap as of late 2011.  All that sindustry money pooling in AB may trickle down to their gas companies.  TKG was impressed by the performance of MB/SK/ND during the recession.  They have diversified economies and TKG has never followed Singapore, Australia or India investments.  The other recession outperformers.  Also like Ontario's renewable energy portfolio, their materials science clusters, and their immigration.  Will consider their bonds, possibly Hydro, in addition to the central North American 3:  the longer investors have to muse over the recession, the more they should gravitate towards the good kids of the recession.  CAD at 95 cents USA, looks like a nice place to park money.  Looking for a pure bee play.  So is Breyer's.
TKG's second investment was in a store front flashing small cap company TKG was lucky to exit with minor loss.  They had debt due and defaulted.  No one from companies or in the financial community likes to talk about truths that may hurt a stock price, as a lower stock price could itself cause an even lower stock price.  If a company's debt due dates aren't crystal clear, $15M due on Sept 30th 2014 or whatever, don't invest.  TKG likes New Flyer, a transit bus manufacturer, as a biz.  TKG can't understand their preferred share structures and will not invest.

investment benchmarks to outperform

The Keystone Garter (TKG) seeks to outperform common intelligent investment vehicles in Canada and the USA by 1% or 2% per year at least.  A business cycle last around 8 years historically, so TKG will attempt to outperform most or all of these vehicles over a 9 yr period, accounting for taxes and currency exchange flux.  Still working on the details; Canada gives TKG some exposure to the developing world but might be missing out on EU.  The vehicles TKG will compete against while still sneaking SRIs into its portfolios, are:
  1. Third Avenue Value Fund.  There are a few of these.  TKG will pick one.  Whitman's wiki CV impresses TKG.  A value investor closer to Graham than Buffett.
  2. BRK.b.  W.Buffett founded, a student of Benjamin Graham.  Does not appreciate waiting for deep book value discounts to be realized in price, so prefers historic earnings growth and sound Executives.  Likes brand power.  Has demonstrated the ability to learn from mistakes and has incorporated some SRI into investment philosophy over time.  Holds investments over the long-term to avoid realizing income taxes.  This strategy results in progressively less wealth accrued from newer investments and returns decrease over time (from astronomical levels).
  3. 30 year USA Treasury Bonds.  Even in a USA-inspired recession, USD assets are considered a flight to quality...
  4. GE.  Diversified conglomerate without big defense exposure (USA in deficit).  TKG isn ot a fan of nuclear power nor finance divisions under 2011 USA laws (Buffett liked the latter in 2009).  Balanced out by medical equipment division and many energy efficient product lines.  Might use Siemens ADR instead.
  5. Wilshire 5000 Index.  Most of the USA stock market.
  6. Lundin or Hudbay.  Two copper diversified miners without coal or tar exposure.  Lundin was in danger of defaulting in 2008.  Copper is used for water pipes, wind turbine components and is an antimicrobial coating.  Cu appears cheap now.
Ideally these would be one portfolio; the weighting is hard.  Trying to beat 5/6 is simpler.